Popyt na Bitcoin wzrósł wielokrotnie w 2020 r. A dane dotyczące łańcucha pokazują, że ograniczona podaż aktywów może powodować pośpiech.

Pociąg Bitcoin FOMO

Bitcoin, największa kryptowaluta na świecie, odnotował w zeszłym roku wzrost popytu w obliczu złych perspektyw gospodarczych, obaw związanych z inflacją dolara, osłabieniem walut fiducjarnych, nieustannym drukowaniem pieniędzy i niską rentownością tradycyjnych aktywów.

Rajd widzieliśmy nawet gracze instytucjonalni usiąść i zwracać uwagę na aktywa, gdyż przedarł poprzedniego wysokiego wszech czasów z $ 19.800 do nawet $ 41.750 w grudniu 2020. Niektóre z tych zawartych funduszy wielomiliardowych jak Guggenheim Partners , która złożyła zainteresowanie BTC z US SEC w zeszłym roku.

Inni zdecydowali się na to. Paul Tudor Jones, inwestor-miliarder i dyrektor Tudor Investments, przeznaczył prawie 2% swojego kapitału na tę klasę aktywów, stwierdzając, że była to „wielka spekulacja”, ale „najszybszy koń” spośród wszystkich innych aktywów na otwartym rynku.

Firmy technologiczne również FOMO. Fintech Service Square, należący do rzecznika Bitcoin i założyciela Twittera Jacka Dorseya, zainwestował 50 milionów dolarów ze swoich funduszy skarbowych w BTC, stwierdzając, że jest to instrument „wzmocnienia gospodarczego i zapewnia światu możliwość uczestniczenia w globalnym systemie monetarnym”.

Ale to nie przyćmi firma Business Intelligence MicroStrategy Czad -Jak Bitcoin zakupem. Począwszy od sierpnia 2020 roku, firma zbudowała pozycję w aktywach o wartości 1 miliarda dolarów. Największy zakup miał miejsce w grudniu, kiedy zebrał 650 milionów dolarów w formie obligacji zamiennych i wykorzystał wpływy na zakup większej ilości Bitcoinów.

Co mówią dane dotyczące łańcucha

Pomimo wielkości, zainteresowanie Bitcoinem dopiero się zaczyna. Analityk sieciowy Willy Woo powiedział dziś w tweecie, że sezon „tarła wielorybów” właśnie się rozpoczął, jak pokazała rekordowa liczba dużych transakcji Bitcoin.

Woo dalej wspomniał:

„Na świecie żyje 47 milionów milionerów, 71% z nich mieszka w USA lub UE, w obiegu jest tylko 14,9 miliona BTC, a tylko 4,1 miliona BTC jest płynnych i dlatego można je kupić.”

Takie ograniczenie płynności po stronie sprzedaży prawdopodobnie spowodowało rekordowe zakupy bitcoinów w zeszłym miesiącu, co z kolei spowodowało wzrost ceny aktywów do ponad 23000 USD i więcej, stwierdził Woo.

Tymczasem Woo dodał, że dane pokazały, że podaż 4,1 miliona „płynnych” monet (lub takich, które były dostępne do sprzedaży) stale spadała w czasie drukowania pieniędzy i rund stymulacyjnych. Obserwacja sugerująca, że ​​na rynku jest obecnie mało sprzedawców.

If you look around on Twitter, it seems that the crypto market is anything but bearish.

Friday and Saturday were marked by extremely strong rallies in altcoin prices – despite consolidation in the two leading cryptocurrencies.

Many small-caps, medium-caps, and even large-cap altcoins enjoyed gains of 10-50 percent yesterday, causing Bitcoin dominance to drop sharply to 65 percent (at the time of this article). At the beginning of the week, the metric was still at 68.5 percent.

But that price action didn’t convince all analysts that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest of the market are ready to move higher.

Bitcoin in a bear market?

Qiao Wang, a crypto-asset investor who formerly worked for Messari and Tower Research, believes that Bitcoin (For Bitcoin buy manual ) and the crypto market may not be in a full-blown bull market, as some have speculated.

He announced on Jan. 15 that he thinks we might find ourselves in a „mini bear market“ due to the large amount of speculators, as evidenced by the funding rates of the crypto futures markets:

“IMO we’re in a mini bear market. Not enough conviction to short and certainly I think we’ll be a lot higher in 6-12 months. Would like to see as devaluation how speculators leave and spot buyers enter. I have no idea how deep we’re going to fall, but 20k-25k would hurt both bulls and bears. „

For a better understanding, the funding rate is the recurring fee that long positions pay to short positions in order to match the price of a futures market to the price of a spot market. High funding rates often indicate that there is a large amount of leveraged buyers speculating on an asset that is growing in value in a short time frame.

Wang adds that there are currently many weak spots in the market that make him vulnerable to a possible correction:

“I’m still long on some high quality DeFi that I think we will do very well if my BTC thesis is wrong. Either way, there is a lot of fragility in the system. It’s not the time to be a hero. “

His opinion is similar to that of Scott Minerd of Guggenheim. He had stated in a recent interview with Bloomberg that Bitcoin is probably in the middle of a short-term „speculative frenzy“ or a mania.

Pascal Gauthier, CEO of Ledger, took part in a podcast to discuss the customer data leak.

Ledger was the subject of a massive hack that resulted in widespread user data leakage.

Some users are threatening to take collective action as a result of these events

Pascal Gauthier, CEO of Ledger, spoke with Peter McCormack on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast to discuss the recent data breach that affected customers.

Pascal Gauthier started the podcast with an apology, stating that the company is doing everything possible to correct the situation.

He believes that the disclosure of the data does not affect Ledger’s hardware at any level, but rather the personal information of users.

After explaining the circumstances of the hack, Gauthier reassured podcast listeners that Ledger is doing his best to be as transparent as possible. He clarified that the relevant information is available on the Ledger website.

In this high-profile hack, Ledger suffered massive data infiltration. As a result of the hack, the personal data of more than 277,000 Ledger customers has now been disclosed online.

This data includes personal information such as the names of customers, their physical and e-mail addresses and their telephone numbers

According to the Twitter account of Alex Krüger ( @krugermacro ), an economist and trader with more than 55,000 followers, anyone who purchased a Ledger wallet before July 2020 has most likely had their personal information exposed.

What’s next for Ledger?

Ledger announced the data breach on Twitter and said: “It is an understatement to say that we sincerely regret this situation”.

The company also explained that it was taking important precautions, especially with the hiring of an information security officer (CISO). She also performs tests with external security companies and works with law enforcement.

Several affected Ledger clients are nevertheless threatening to take class action against the company.

Safety Precautions for Users

If you have purchased hardware such as the Ledger Nano S or the Ledger Nano X or if you have already subscribed to its newsletter, it is highly likely that at least some of your information has been compromised.

Mr Kruger gave more advice on the situation, insisting to the owners of the wallet :

The personal data of 272,000 Ledger buyers has been leaked. If your data has been compromised, make sure you are not using your number for 2FA anywhere. Change to a VoIP, or GA number. Otherwise, contact @haseeb, a Bitcoin OG whose company provides protection against SIM swapping.

Mr. Kruger described some of the characteristics of personal cryptocurrency theft. Indeed, digital theft is not what most people imagine.

It ends with a cartoon showing an “imaginary” hack, where thieves try to develop an advanced computer program to hack your wallet, as opposed to a much more realistic crypto theft.

In the real theft there are no awesome hackers, but desperate men with big keys who will attack you endlessly until you give them the password. While this is rare, malicious actors could theoretically track down known crypto users.

If you are one of the users affected by this new data breach, there are a number of security precautions that are worth exploring.

El viernes (11 de diciembre), el exgerente de fondos de cobertura Jim Cramer explicó durante una entrevista por qué ese mismo día había comprado más Bitcoin.

Cramer es el presentador del programa de CNBC “ Mad Money w / Jim Cramer „

También es co-presentador de “ Squawk on the Street ” de CNBC , así como cofundador del sitio web de noticias financieras TheStreet .

El 7 de junio de 2017 , cuando Bitcoin cotizaba alrededor de $ 2,800, después de que le dijeran en „Squawk on the Street“ que el CEO de Business Insider, Henry Blodget, había predicho que Bitcoin algún día valdría $ 1 millón, así es como respondió Cramer:

“ Creo que [Bitcoin] podría [llegar a $ 1 millón] porque los bancos europeos están tratando frenéticamente de comprarlos para poder pagar el ransomware. Es una forma a corto plazo de poder lidiar con la ciberseguridad. Es la forma de pagar a los malos. “

Sin embargo, el 14 de agosto de 2018 , en un momento en que Bitcoin acababa de caer por debajo del nivel de $ 6K, descubrimos que Cramer había pasado de ser súper alcista a bajista:

“ Creo que la marea se ha vuelto en su contra… No digo que haya pasado el tiempo, pero existe la idea de que el sol parece estar poniéndose. „

Luego, el 10 de septiembre, Anthony Pompliano (también conocido como „Pomp“), cofundador de Morgan Creek Digital y presentador de “ The Pomp Podcast „, dijo a sus casi 370.000 seguidores en Twitter que había convencido a Cramer de compre Bitcoin (aparentemente durante una reciente entrevista de podcast con Cramer):

El viernes, Cramer le dijo a Katherine Ross, corresponsal de TheStreet que acababa de comprar más Bitcoin, y procedió a explicar por qué:

“Sí, sentí que volver a $ 17 [k] parecía un nivel decente, y compraré, como suelo hacer, cuando algo se derrumbe. Me volveré más grande y más grande.

“Simplemente creo que desea diversificarse en todo tipo de clases de activos. Tengo oro Me voy a diversificar en Bitcoin, no es una gran posición para mí, pero ciertamente es importante diversificarme, y Bitcoin es un activo y quiero tener un equilibrio de activos „.

Samson Mow again insists that Bitcoin’s purpose goes far beyond retail transactions, it’s a paradigm shift.

Since its creation, the world has wondered what the real purpose of Bitcoin (BTC) is, retail transactions or financial transactions. Samson Mow, Blockstream’s Director of Strategy, shared his opinion about Bitcoin.

What are the Bitcoin Evolution software whales doing while BTC is breaking its record?

Bitcoin moves a lot of money in seconds

Samson Mow noted yesterday on Twitter that Bitcoin’s goal has never really been „transactions per second and coffee,“ Bitcoin is about „transactional value and the new financial paradigm.

In other words, Mow states that „VPTS (transaction value per second), and not TPS (transaction per second),“ is what really counts. In this sense, Mow assures that Bitcoin moves around half a million dollars in value per second in the world.

In the video published by Mow, we can see the transaction value per second of BTC, BCH, ETH, LTC and XRP.

„It’s more than a store of value and a means of transferring wealth. It’s not something I would use every day in payments. I’ve said this before, and people have twisted and said I hate Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is bad for payments,“ Mow explained to SFOX in August.

Russia’s Sberbank and its own cryptomoney

Sberbank of Russia plans to launch its own crypto

Russia’s Sberbank, one of the country’s largest banks, indicated that it is looking to issue its own crypto for next year. How? Well, through a partnership with JPMorgan.

Let’s bear in mind that Sberbank is a Russian state-owned company. This feature is especially important since, also this week, senior officials of the Bank of Russia demonstrated against the issuance of a stablecoin crypt linked to the Russian rouble.

Grayscale may soon control 5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply

Grayscale divides the crypto shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust

Grayscale Investments announced that they will divide the shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust on December 14 by 9 to 1. That is, anyone who already owns a share in Grayscale will receive an additional 8 shares.

Basically, this split will cause the price per share to collapse and be much lower. However, the overall value of the crypto fund remains.

However, it represents a good access opportunity for crypto investors.

Christmas Bull Run? The number of active Bitcoin addresses suggests it

Larry Fink: Bitcoin is on our crypto radar

Larry Fink is Blackrock’s CEO and said that the leading crypto is on the company’s radar after its rapid appreciation.

So much so that Fink considered it possible for Bitcoin to evolve into a global market, which would obviously appreciate the price of crypto much more.

In a few lines…

Dan Schulman, PayPal’s CEO, said he is optimistic about all kinds of digital currencies – the time for crypto is now!
New York Digital Investment Group raised $150 million through two separate crypto investment funds.
Kevin O’Leary of Shark Tank explained that he had nothing against Bitcoin, but would feel more comfortable if it was backed by regulators.

O investidor bilionário Ray Dalio explicou em um tweet recente que provavelmente está faltando algo quando se trata de bitcoin, embora o que ele está faltando não esteja claro considerando que ele usou o resto de seu „tempo de mídia social“ para passar pensamentos negativos sobre a moeda e explicar por que ela nunca poderia ser usada como moeda corrente.

Ray Dalio: A bitcoin é muito volátil

Bitcoin se saiu muito bem como um ativo especulativo, mas no final das contas, ele – juntamente com várias outras moedas criptográficas – foi criado para servir como um veículo de pagamento potencial, algo que não conseguiu realizar. O fato é que o bitcoin e outras moedas criptográficas têm sido extremamente vulneráveis às oscilações de preços. Eles são voláteis e muitas empresas estão preocupadas em aceitar o ativo como forma de pagamento. Ainda há muitas chances de perder lucros, e embora todos possamos pensar que o bitcoin é da bomba, podemos entender seu raciocínio.

Digamos, por exemplo, que você entra em uma loja e compra mercadorias no valor de 50 dólares com bitcoin compass. Você se envolve em uma transação, você sai, e amanhã a moeda desce e esses $50 se transformam em $25. Bem, você ainda poderá desfrutar de tudo o que comprou, mas o lucro que a empresa esperava agora foi reduzido à metade. É verdade que eles não o transformaram em fiat imediatamente após o término da transação, a loja perdeu.

Não é muito justo para o varejista em questão, e isto é algo com o qual a Dalio se opõe. Ele diz que, embora o bitcoin possa estar indo bem por enquanto, sua volatilidade ainda é um grande problema e é provável que atrapalhe o seu uso como moeda corrente.

Em uma entrevista recente, ele comenta:

Não é bom como um depósito de riqueza porque sua volatilidade é grande e tem pouca correlação com os preços do que eu preciso comprar… Não consigo imaginar bancos centrais, grandes investidores institucionais, empresas ou empresas multinacionais usando-o. Se eu estiver errado sobre estas coisas, eu adoraria ser corrigido.

As instituições estão usando-o…

Bem, aqui está algo para considerar o Sr. Dalio… Você não consegue imaginar investidores institucionais usando-o? Como, então, você explica empresas como a MicroStrategy e a Square comprando milhões de dólares – valor de bitcoin nos últimos meses? A MicroStrategy comprou mais de US$ 400 milhões, enquanto a Square comprou US$ 50 milhões. Ambos também afirmaram que o ativo pode fazer maravilhas em tempos de conflito econômico, muito parecido com o que o mundo está passando agora.

Embora estas empresas possam não estar utilizando bitcoin para comprar itens físicos, elas estão comprando estabilidade financeira, dado o quão fraco o dólar se tornou, supostamente, nos últimos meses. Ambas afirmaram que o bitcoin é um dos únicos ativos estáveis que os usuários podem esperar ter neste momento, e isto potencialmente levará a uma maior atividade principal para o bitcoin e seus irmãos digitais.